Dubai’s property market remains exceptionally active in Q3–Q4 2025. Strong buyer demand — especially from international and resident investors — has driven robust sales volumes and continued rental growth in prime areas.
Market snapshot
- Transaction value and volume remain high: Q3 2025 recorded ≈ AED 138 billion of residential transactions (55,280 deals) — roughly +18% y/y — showing continued liquidity across the market.
- Off-plan still dominates activity: Off-plan accounted for a very large share of sales in 2025; multiple reports put off-plan transactions at or near 70% of sales in recent quarters.
- Price index up strongly over the last few years, but caution flags exist: Prices surged since 2022 (reports note very large cumulative gains) but credit agencies and analysts warn of a possible double-digit correction later in 2025/2026 if new supply comes through quickly. (Fitch flagged up to ~15% downside as a scenario).
- Rents are rising, especially for villas and prime apartments: H1–H2 2025 data and platform reports show notable rental growth in Downtown, Palm and Marina and continued strong demand for villas.
Key numbers
- Q3 2025 residential value: AED 138bn ≈ £30.4bn (Q3). Transaction count ≈ 55,280 deals.
- YTD sales volumes (2025): Over 120,000+ units sold YTD per DLD / market trackers.
- Off-plan share: ~70% of sales in recent quarters were off-plan according to press coverage.
- Price momentum vs risk: Authorities’ indices show very strong Y/Y gains over the last 2–3 years; Fitch warned a possible ~15% correction into late-2025/2026 if high delivery volumes materialise.
- Prime areas where rents/prices are strongest: Downtown Dubai, Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Marina and selected villa communities — all showing above-market rental gains in 2025.
Why the market is performing
- Strong demand from internationals + resident buyers: Visa liberalisation, positioning as a global hub and relatively attractive taxation have continued to draw capital.
- Supply surge: Developers have a large pipeline of deliveries due over the next 12–24 months; if many units are handed over quickly, upward price pressure could ease or reverse. Fitch and other analysts highlight this as the principal downside risk.
- Shift back to off-plan buying: Developers and buyers are increasingly using off-plan to lock prices/returns — this boosts short-term transaction volumes but can amplify exposure if projects slow or end-market demand softens.
- Rents supporting investment case: Rising rents, particularly for villas and prime apartments, improve yields for buy-to-let investors and support valuations where rental yield is a key metric.
Practical takeaways for buyers, sellers and landlords
Buyers:
- Owner-occupiers: still a compelling market in prime areas if you value the lifestyle/long-term capital story.
- Investors: factor in rising supply; look for projects with strong delivery track records, clear end-user demand, and sensible payment plans. Consider rental yield and vacancy risk rather than pure capital appreciation bets.
Sellers:
- Consider staging listings in phases rather than flooding the market — scarcity and good marketing still extract a premium in prime segments.
- Pricing expectations should account for the potential of a mid-single to low-double digit correction in stressed segments; be realistic on comparable evidence.
Landlords:
- Short term: rentals remain strong in many segments, especially villas and prime apartments — landlords who can position competitively will benefit.
- Medium term: watch new supply and plan for potential softening by reviewing tenancy duration and refurbishment cycles to retain tenants.